Learn to Predict Local Weather
More Articles Related to BlogThe ability to make accurate weather predictions and take action based upon equipment and capabilities is the mark of an experienced outdoorsmen with a high level of survival skills.
Predicting Weather is an Excellent Survival Skill
Observing your local weather conditions and regularly making your own predictions as to what the weather is likely to be in the future is an important wilderness survival exercise. With practice you will able to accurately predict the weather and master a survival skill could very well save your life.
While the weather you are experiencing at the moment is important, your survival decisions are often largely based upon weather hours or days from now. If you are traveling, especially through varied terrain, you need to be able to predict what the weather will be like in the area you will find yourself as you progress.
Accurate Weather Predicting Only Comes With Experience
Only through years of experience will you be able to instinctively predict what the local weather is likely to be hours or even several days in advance. As you gain expertise you will find you are more accurately predicting your local weather. Often your weather predictions will be more accurate for your area than the weather forecasters most people rely upon.
It may seem odd if you haven’t reached this point in your weather prediction skills, but with experience you will just know what the weather will likely be without thinking much about it all. This is due to subtle cues you subconscious awareness tracks including wind, cloud cover, and even the actions of local wildlife who are perhaps the best weather predictors of all.
The ability to predict local weather is an excellent wilderness survival skill that will serve you well for the rest of your life. Of course you should still keep tabs on what the professional weather forecasters are saying when planning your wilderness forays. However local conditions are often quite different than those the weather forecasters give – which of necessity usually only pertain to the general area.
Some examples of how local weather can differ significantly from the surrounding area include:
- Storms and other weather conditions are often related to nearby terrain features. Proximity to mountains and lakes means the area may receive weather from them.
- Locations on mountains and lakes will frequently have weather much different than nearby areas. For example, temperatures tend to drop with increase in altitude. Large bodies of water are often windy and generate rain squalls.
- Open areas may be warmer than places with thick vegetation due to direct sunlight. However open areas may also be exposed to greater wind speeds and higher wind chill.
- A south facing slope on a sunny day may be very warm even in winter, but if it is exposed to strong winds this heat will be quickly carried away.
- Low points may be sinks into which cold air sinks. Deep gullies and stream beds are often colder than the surrounding land.
- A temperature of 33 F may produce cold rain and sleet, with increased chances of hypothermia. However a few degrees less and it may snow instead, which usually makes it easier to stay dry.
- Especially during adverse weather, traveling with your back to the wind is better than facing it.
These factors and others can lead to radically different weather than what the weather forecasters are predicting for the general area you are in or plan to go to. Your knowledge and experience about the local weather will often have a bearing on the decisions you make.
For example, if it is very windy in the valley I am traveling in, I will usually think twice about ascending any tall mountain since it is likely to be much windier in the higher elevations. Above timberline in these mountains winds are routinely over 100mph (160kph) and makes for very dangerous conditions.
Taking weather into account is an important part of the decision making process.
Example Weather Prediction
Predicting the local weather for the area I am in is a favorite pastime and a survival skill I enjoy practicing. Last night (March 29th) was calm and crystal clear in the mountains of Northern New Hampshire. With no cloud cover the stars twinkled and danced about as much of the earths heat accumulated during the day escaped into outer space.
Snowshoeing in the dark forest by the light of the stars reflected from snow, I could feel the temperature dropping quickly as my damp outer clothing layer began to freeze. Experience told me crystal clear nights at this time of year in the White Mountains of New Hampshire often become quite cold. But I also knew that by late March we are unlikely to receive temperatures in the danger zone, which for me is in the range of 30 degrees below zero F (-34C).
In this case I knew I could remain outdoors all night with just the clothing and gear I had with me. If a clear starscaped night like this occurred in January or February, I would be concerned that the temperature could become much colder. It could drop into the range where my gear and clothing could not protect me. I would probably head for home or choose to spend time gathering materials for building a fire and shelter making to insure I could survive through the night.
Back home as I sat by crackling wood stove fire I felt especially snug and warm as the forest trees outside snapped and cracked with the tightening cold. I wrote down my prediction that the outside temperature would drop to about 5 degrees below 0 F (-21F) and the wind would remain calm.
At sunrise this morning (March 30) the temperature is 7 below zero F (-22 C) and calm, which means the weather prediction I made 12-hours earlier using my skills and local knowledge was accurate enough for wilderness survival planning.
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